Ngokutsho kwe-China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, i-PMI yokwenziwa kwehlabathi ngo-Matshi 2022 yayingama-54.1%, ihla ngepesenti ye-0.8 yeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo kunye ne-3.7 yeepesenti zexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.Ukusuka kumbono ongaphantsi kommandla, i-PMI yokuvelisa e-Asia, eYurophu, eMelika nase-Afrika yonke yawela kumaqondo ahlukeneyo xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, kwaye i-PMI yokuvelisa yaseYurophu yehle kakhulu.

Utshintsho lwesalathiso lubonisa ukuba phantsi kweempembelelo ezimbini zobhubhane kunye nongquzulwano lwelizwe, izinga lokukhula kweshishini lemveliso yehlabathi liye lehla, lijongene nezothuso zexeshana elifutshane, ukuncipha kwemfuno kunye nolindelo olubuthathaka.Ngokwembono yobonelelo, ungquzulwano lwemo yelizwe lube mandundu ingxaki yempembelelo yonikezelo ekuqaleni ebangelwe ngubhubhane, ixabiso lemathiriyeli ekrwada ubukhulu becala amandla kunye neenkozo linyuse uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko zobonelelo lunyukile;Iingxwabangxwaba ze-geopolitical zikhokelele ekuthinteleni uthutho lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokwehla kokusebenza kakuhle kobonelelo.Ngokombono wemfuno, ukuhla kwe-PMI yokuvelisa kwihlabathi kubonisa ingxaki yokunciphisa imfuno ukuya kwinqanaba elithile, ngakumbi i-PMI yokuvelisa e-Asia, eYurophu, eMelika nase-Afrika inqabile, oku kuthetha ukuba ingxaki yokunciphisa imfuno yingxaki eqhelekileyo. ejongene nehlabathi kwixesha elifutshane.Ngokombono olindelekileyo, phambi kwempembelelo edibeneyo yobhubhani kunye neengxabano ze-geopolitical, imibutho yamazwe ngamazwe iluthobile uqikelelo lokukhula koqoqosho ngo-2022. INkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo yoRhwebo kunye noPhuhliso isanda kukhupha ingxelo eye yehlisa ukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi lwama-2022. uqikelelo ukusuka kwi-3.6% ukuya kwi-2.6%.

NgoMatshi ka-2022, i-PMI yokuvelisa yase-Afrika yehle ngepesenti ezi-2 ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo ukuya kuma-50.8%, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba izinga lokubuyisela kwimveliso yase-Afrika liye lehla ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo.Ubhubhani we-COVID-19 uze nemingeni kuphuhliso loqoqosho lwase-Afrika.Ngelo xesha, ukunyuka kwenzala ye-Fed kuye kwakhokelela ekuphumeni okuthile.Amanye amazwe ase-Afrika asokole ekuzinziseni inkxaso-mali yangaphakathi ngokunyuswa kwenzala kunye nezicelo zoncedo lwamazwe ngamazwe.

Ukuvelisa e-Asia kuyaqhubeka nokucotha, kunye ne-PMI iqhubeka nokuhla kancinci

Ngo-Matshi i-2022, i-PMI yokuvelisa i-Asia yawa ngamanqaku epesenti ye-0.4 ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo ukuya kwi-51.2%, ukuhla okuncinci kweenyanga ezine ezilandelelanayo, ebonisa ukuba izinga lokukhula kweshishini lokuvelisa i-Asia libonise ukwehla okuqhubekayo.Ngokombono wamazwe amakhulu, ngenxa yezinto zexesha elifutshane ezifana nokusasazeka kobhubhane kwiindawo ezininzi kunye neengxabano ze-geopolitical, ulungiso kwizinga lokukhula kwemveliso yase-China yeyona nto iphambili ekunciphiseni izinga lokukhula kwishishini lemveliso yase-Asia. .Ukukhangela phambili kwikamva, isiseko sokubuyiselwa okuzinzileyo koqoqosho lwaseTshayina aluzange lutshintshe, kwaye amashishini amaninzi athe ngcembe angena kwixesha eliphakamileyo lemveliso kunye nokuthengisa, kwaye kukho indawo yokubonelela ngeemarike kunye nemfuno yokuphinda ibuyele.Ngeenzame ezilungelelanisiweyo zemigaqo-nkqubo emininzi, isiphumo senkxaso ezinzileyo kuqoqosho siya kubonakala ngokuthe ngcembe.Ukongeza e-China, impembelelo yobhubhane kwamanye amazwe ase-Asia nayo inkulu, kwaye i-PMI yokuvelisa eMzantsi Korea naseVietnam nayo yehle kakhulu xa ithelekiswa nenyanga ephelileyo.

Ukongeza kwimpembelelo yobhubhane, iingxabano ze-geopolitical kunye noxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso nazo ziyizinto ezibalulekileyo ezichaphazela uphuhliso lwamazwe ase-Asia asakhulayo.Uninzi loqoqosho lwase-Asia lungenisa isabelo esikhulu samandla nokutya, kwaye iingxabano ze-geopolitical ziye zandisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-oyile nokutya, zinyusa iindleko zokusebenza kuqoqosho olukhulu lwase-Asia.I-Fed iqalise umjikelo wokunyusa inzala, kwaye kukho umngcipheko wemali ephuma kumazwe asakhulayo.Ukuqinisa intsebenziswano kwezoqoqosho, ukwandisa umdla woqoqosho olufanayo, kunye nokucofa amandla aphezulu okukhula kommandla lisikhokelo seenzame zamazwe aseAsia zokuxhathisa izothuso zangaphandle.I-RCEP izise inkuthazo entsha kuzinzo loqoqosho lwase-Asia.

Uxinzelelo oluphantsi kwishishini lokuvelisa laseYurophu luye lwavela, kwaye i-PMI iye yawa kakhulu

Ngo-Matshi i-2022, i-PMI yokuvelisa yaseYurophu yayiyi-55.3%, phantsi kweepesenti ze-1.6 ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kwaye ukuhla kwandiswa ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo kwiinyanga ezimbini ezilandelelanayo.Ukususela kumbono wamazwe amakhulu, izinga lokukhula kwemveliso kumazwe amakhulu afana neJamani, i-United Kingdom, iFransi ne-Italiya liye lancipha kakhulu, kwaye i-PMI yokuvelisa iyancipha kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, i-PMI yokuvelisa yaseJamani iye yehla. ngaphezu kwepesenti ye-1 yepesenti, kunye ne-PMI yokuvelisa yase-United Kingdom, eFransi nase-Italy yehle ngaphezu kweepesenti ze-2.I-PMI yokuvelisa yaseRashiya yawela ngaphantsi kwe-45%, ukuhla kweepesenti ezingaphezulu kweepesenti ze-4.

Ukusuka kwimbono yokutshintsha kwesalathiso, phantsi kweempembelelo ezimbini zongquzulwano lwe-geopolitical kunye nobhubhane, izinga lokukhula kweshishini lokuvelisa laseYurophu liye lancipha kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, kwaye uxinzelelo oluphantsi luye lwanda.I-ECB yanciphisa i-eurozone yokukhula koqoqosho lwe-2022 ukusuka kwi-4.2 ekhulwini ukuya kwi-3.7 ekhulwini.Ingxelo yeNkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo kuRhwebo noPhuhliso iprojekthi yokuncipha okubonakalayo kokukhula koqoqosho kwiindawo ezithile zaseNtshona Yurophu.Kwangaxeshanye, ungquzulwano lwemo yelizwe luye lwakhokelela ekwenyukeni okuphawulekayo koxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso eYurophu.NgoFebruwari 2022, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kummandla we-euro kunyuke ukuya kwi-5.9 ekhulwini, irekhodi eliphezulu ukususela oko kwazalwa i-euro.Umgaqo-nkqubo we-ECB “ibhalansi” iye yatshintshela ngakumbi ekunyukeni kwemingcipheko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.I-ECB ithathele ingqalelo umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ngokuqhubekayo.

Ukukhula kokuvelisa eMelika kuye kwacotha kwaye i-PMI yehlile

Ngo-Matshi 2022, i-PMI yoMveliso eMelika yehla ipesenti ye-0.8 yeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo ukuya kwi-56.6%.Idatha evela kumazwe amakhulu ibonisa ukuba i-PMI yokuvelisa yaseCanada, iBrazil kunye neMexico inyuke yaya kumaqondo ahlukeneyo xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo, kodwa i-PMI yokuvelisa i-US iye yancipha ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kunye nokuhla kwepesenti ye-1 yepesenti. ukwehla ngokubanzi kwi-PMI yeshishini lokuvelisa laseMelika.

Utshintsho lwesalathiso lubonisa ukuba ukucotha kwesantya sokukhula kweshishini lemveliso lase-US xa kuthelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo yeyona nto iphambili ekucuthekeni kwesantya sokukhula kweshishini lemveliso eMelika.Ingxelo ye-ISM ibonisa ukuba ngo-Matshi 2022, i-PMI yokuvelisa i-US yehla ipesenti ye-1.5 yeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo ukuya kwi-57.1%.Izalathisi ezingaphantsi zibonisa ukuba izinga lokukhula lonikezelo kunye nemfuno kwishishini lemveliso lase-US liye lehla kakhulu xa lithelekiswa nenyanga edlulileyo.Isalathiso semveliso kunye nemiyalelo emitsha yawela ngaphezu kweepesenti ze-4.Iinkampani zinika ingxelo yokuba icandelo lezemveliso lase-US lijongene nemfuno ekwikhontrakthi, ikhonkco lonikezelo lwasekhaya nelamazwe ngamazwe luvaliwe, ukunqongophala kwabasebenzi, kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziphathekayo.Phakathi kwazo, ingxaki yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ibonakala ngokukodwa.Uvavanyo lwe-Fed lomngcipheko wokunyuka kwamaxabiso luye lwatshintsha ngokuthe ngcembe ukusuka "kwexeshana" lokuqala ukuya "kwinkangeleko yokunyuka kwamaxabiso iye yehla kakhulu."Kutshanje, i-Federal Reserve yehlise uqikelelo lwayo lokukhula koqoqosho ngo-2022, inciphisa kakhulu imveliso yayo yangaphakathi yokukhula kwi-2.8% ukusuka kwi-4% yangaphambili.

I-Multi-factor superposition, i-PMI yokuvelisa yase-China iye yabuyela kuluhlu lwe-contraction

Idatha ekhutshwe yi-National Bureau of Statistics ngo-Matshi 31 ibonise ukuba ngo-Matshi, i-index yabaphathi bokuthengwa kwe-China (PMI) yayingama-49.5%, ihla ngepesenti ye-0.7 yeepesenti ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kunye nenqanaba lokuchuma ngokubanzi kwishishini lokuvelisa lawa.Ngokukodwa, imveliso kunye neziphelo zemfuno ziphantsi ngaxeshanye.Isalathiso semveliso kunye nesalathiso semiyalelo emitsha yehla nge-0.9 kunye neepesenti ze-1.9 ngokulandelanayo ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo.Ukuchatshazelwa kukuguquguquka okubukhali kwamva nje kumaxabiso eemveliso zamazwe ngamazwe kunye nezinye izinto, inkcazo yexabiso lokuthenga kunye nexabiso lexabiso lentengo yangaphambili ye-factory yempahla enkulu yayiyi-66.1% kunye ne-56.7%, ngokulandelanayo, ngaphezu kwe-6.1 kunye ne-2.6 yeepesenti zepesenti kwinyanga edlulileyo, zombini ziphakame ukuya. phantse iinyanga ezi-5 ukuphakama.Ukongeza, amanye amashishini avavanyiweyo achaza ukuba ngenxa yempembelelo yomjikelo wangoku wobhubhane, ukufika kwabasebenzi kwakungonelanga, ulungiselelo kunye nokuthuthwa kwakungahambi kakuhle, kwaye umjikelo wokuhanjiswa wandiswa.Isalathiso sexesha lonikezelo lonikezelo lwale nyanga yi-46.5%, phantsi kwe-1.7 yepesenti yamanqaku ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kunye nokuzinza kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngemveliso kuye kwachaphazeleka kwinqanaba elithile.

Ngo-Matshi, i-PMI yokuvelisa i-high-tech yayiyi-50.4%, eyayingaphantsi kwenyanga edlulileyo, kodwa iqhubekile kuluhlu lokwandisa.Isalathiso sabasebenzi abakwi-high-tech kunye ne-business index expectation indexation yi-52.0% kunye ne-57.8%, ngokulandelanayo, iphezulu kune-industry yemveliso ye-3.4 kunye ne-2.1 yeepesenti.Oku kubonisa ukuba imveliso yobugcisa obuphezulu inokuqina okuqinileyo kophuhliso, kwaye amashishini aqhubeka enethemba malunga nophuhliso lwemarike yexesha elizayo.